Weekly Market Analysis from 28th of April 2025

Key economic data releases and central bank decisions scheduled for this week are poised to influence market sentiment, with the USD, JPY, CAD, AUD and EUR likely to experience notable movements.

The week begins on Tuesday with the US JOLTS Job Openings report, offering a timely snapshot of labour demand. The previous reading came in at 7.57m, and the forecast is expected to be 7.48m. If the actual data is greater than the forecast then that could be considered good for the USD.

On Wednesday, attention turns to Australia’s quarterly CPI, with headline inflation expected to rise to 0.8% q/q, from 0.2% in the previous quarter. On a yearly basis, CPI is forecast at 2.3% y/y, slightly below the previous reading of 2.4%. The Trimmed Mean CPI, which the RBA closely monitors, is projected at 0.6% q/q. A stronger reading may reinforce inflation persistence, while a softer outcome could ease rate pressure.

Thursday features the Bank of Japan’s Policy Rate decision, with no change expected to the current rate of 0.50%. However, after Japan’s recent departure from negative interest rates, markets will closely analyse the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement for signals on inflation outlook or potential future normalization steps. Even subtle changes in tone could impact the JPY and local equities.

The week wraps up on Friday with key labour data from the US, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the Unemployment Rate. Payrolls are forecasted at 129K, down from 228K in March, suggesting a potential slowdown in hiring. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%, while Average Hourly Earnings are also forecast to remain unchanged at 0.3%. These results could offer fresh insight into the state of the US labor market and wage pressures.

With central bank commentary, inflation data and Non-Farm Payrolls scheduled for release this week, there is potential for volatility in the currency markets.

Here are 3 markets to watch this week

All technical analysis is provided by Trading Central.

EUR/USD

If the price stays below the pivot at 1.1390, the pair could extend its decline toward the support levels at 1.1315 and 1.1290. However, a move above 1.1390 may see the currency pair climb towards the 1.1415 and 1.1440 levels. The RSI is neutral.

USD/JPY

If USD/JPY holds above the pivot at 143.10, the pair could gain momentum toward the resistance levels at 144.10 and 144.60. Alternatively, a drop below 143.10 may see the currency pair trade down towards 142.70 and 142.30 price levels. The RSI is neutral.

USD/CAD

If the price remains below the pivot level at 1.3900, the pair could see further downside toward the support levels at 1.3840 and 1.3820. Alternatively, a break above 1.3900 may see a push higher towards 1.3925 and 1.3950. The RSI is neutral.

This week’s high impact market events

The following economic events and data releases have the potential to cause considerable price movements, thereby offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed and leverage our economic calendar to access real-time data and analysis as these key events unfold.

All Times are GMT +3

Tuesday 29th April

Wednesday 30th April

Thursday 1st May

Friday 2nd May

How will you trade the markets this week?

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