Weekly Market Analysis from 12th of May 2025
BY TIO Staff
|May 12, 2025Important economic data releases are expected to influence the markets this week, with the USD, GBP, and AUD all under the spotlight.
The week starts on Tuesday with focus on US inflation data. The release of the Core CPI m/m is forecast to rise to 0.3% from the previous figure of 0.1%. This will provide critical insights into the pace of price increases in the US economy.
On Wednesday, the Australian Wage Price Index q/q will be in focus. This key indicator measures the change in the price of labor in Australia. The previous reading was 0.7%, and the forecast is for a slight increase to 0.8%. Higher-than-expected wage growth could signal rising inflationary pressures within the Australian economy.
On Thursday, the UK's GDP m/m will be released, forecasted to decline to 0.0% from the previous figure of 0.5%. This data will offer a snapshot of the UK's economic growth and a reading significantly different from the forecast could impact the value of the GBP.
Following this, eyes will be on the US Retail Sales m/m data which is forecast to decline to 0.0% from 1.4%. US Unemployment Claims data is also forecasted to increase slightly to 229K from the previous reading of 228K.
The week concludes on Friday with the US Consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data. Consumer sentiment is expected to rise slightly to 53.1 from the previous figure of 52.2.
Here are 3 markets to watch this week.
All technical analysis is provided by Trading Central.
USD/CAD
If the price remains above the pivot at 1.3910, the pair could extend its rise towards the 1.3950 and 1.3975 resistance levels. Conversely, a move below 1.3910 could extend the pair’s decline to the support levels at 1.3885 and 1.3860. The RSI is neutral.
GBP/USD
If the price remains below the pivot at 1.3320, the pair could decline towards the support levels at 1.3240 and 1.3220. Conversely, a move above the 1.3320 pivot level may see the currency pair rise towards 1.3345 and 1.3375.
AUD/USD
If the price remains above the pivot at 0.5900, the pair could rise towards the 0.6540 and 0.6680 levels. However, a move below the pivot may see the currency pair fall to the support levels at 0.5800 and 0.5710. The RSI has a mixed signal.
This week’s high impact market events
The following economic events and data releases have the potential to cause considerable price movements, thereby offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed and leverage our economic calendar to access real-time data and analysis as these key events unfold.
All Times are GMT+3
Tuesday 13th May
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 9:00 AM | GBP | Claimant Count Change |
| 3:30 PM | USD | Core CPI m/m |
| 3:30 PM | USD | CPI m/m |
| 3:30 PM | USD | CPI y/y |
Wednesday 14th May
| 4:30 AM | AUD | Wage Price Index q/q |
Thursday 15th May
| 4:30 AM | AUD | Employment Change |
| 4:30 AM | AUD | Unemployment Rate |
| 9:00 AM | GBP | GDP m/m |
| 3:30 PM | USD | Core PPI m/m |
| 3:30 PM | USD | Core Retail Sales m/m |
| 3:30 PM | USD | PPI m/m |
| 3:30 PM | USD | Retail Sales m/m |
| 3:30 PM | USD | Unemployment Claims |
Friday 16th May
| 5:00 PM | USD | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
| 5:00 PM | USD | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations |
How will you trade the markets this week?
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